So inventory market traders obtained the “soiled rally” I alluded to before Christmas.
The imbalances I highlighted on Dec. 23 referred to as for a reconnect to shifting averages off the two,340-point S&P 500 futures zone, and the 2001 analog construction prompt a 10% rally into late January. We obtained a 10%-plus rally, greater than anticipated, courtesy of a all of the sudden dovish-sounding Federal Reserve. (Also learn: “The Ugly Truth.”)
Example: Nasdaq 100 Index
futures reconnected with their 50-day shifting common (MA) on Wednesday:
All good and effectively? Correction over? Get a China deal after which all is effectively? Perhaps.
But there’s a sign chart that will recommend intrigue to come back. As I outlined in 2018 market lessons, extremes change into extra excessive, and we noticed a few of this within the sign charts. In my 2019 market outlook, I highlighted the S&P 500 Bullish Percent Index chart, which confirmed oversold readings in December as excessive as through the monetary disaster. But it’s not the one chart that’s performing excessive.
The NYSE McClellan Oscillator (NYMO) has gotten plenty of consideration previously few days, as its excessive oversold readings reached excessive overbought readings inside solely 11 days.
How excessive? Well, the one different reference level, again, is the 2008/2009 monetary disaster:
Plus 117. It’s a pattern dimension of just one, however let’s dig deeper. What occurs when NYMO goes from over minus 100 to over plus 100 in a matter of days, because it just has?
The solely historical past we have now to go by says this occurs:
People could neglect, however that rally from November 2008 into January 2009 that produced that huge, fats NYMO learn was an intermittent prime before the S&P 500
dropped 30% to 666 factors by March. Except this time, the NYMO learn has come a lot sooner, however each NYMO reads occurred in early January following a late-year correction.
With a pattern dimension of 1, it’s not a big sufficient statistical pattern to provide this correlation any stable predictive weight, however it’s value declaring and one thing to concentrate on. After all, huge corrections typically see the preliminary sturdy counter rally fail and produce a retest with new lows:
There’s one different distinction of observe. In 2008 and 2009, the first quarter served as the premise for the final market low. Bailouts, quantitative easing (QE), mark-to-market suspension — you identify it, it was all a part of the active measures.
All we’ve had thus far is discuss. Quantitative tightening continues to be taking place. So for all of the dovish discuss by the Fed, there hasn’t been any dovish action that we all know of. And why ought to there be? We’re not in a recession but.
Which makes for an intriguing query: Where is the disaster? If there is no such thing as a disaster, why did Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin maintain emergency calls round Christmas? Why did Fed Chairman Jerome Powell cave final week and kick this technical reconnect rally into vertical overdrive?
If there is no such thing as a disaster, why are officials performing like there’s one? One wonders. We don’t have any overt disaster harking back to 2008/2009, however we have now a number of technical indicators which are performing like they did again then. And perhaps that’s one thing value taking note of within the days and weeks forward.
Sven Henrich is founder and the lead market strategist of NorthmanTrader.com. He has been a frequent contributor to CNBC and MarketWatch, and is well-known for his technical, directional and macro evaluation of global fairness markets. His Twitter deal with is @NorthmanTrader.